Sources
Every source the pages cite, in the order you meet them. Each record says what it backs, what it does not show, how far it was checked and when its link last opened. Nothing is listed here that a page does not cite.
Where this stands
58 sources are cited. 56 opened (the links were last run ), and 2 did not open: R48, R42.
"Opened" means a script or a headless browser got a normal page back from the link on that date. Records that start with L were also read against the claim they back. Records that start with R were reviewed earlier, by the project's first source review, and the review line says how deep that went. The AI 2027 and Sable summaries were checked by an AI reviewer against the published pages and search results, not by a person who has read the originals in full. Run scripts/check-sources.mjs --browser --record from a normal network to refresh the dates.
The register
L01Opened
Deep Blue
IBM · 1997 match
Backs Stop 1 · Narrow AI · Mind the Gap, the fine print
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L02Opened
AlphaGo
Google DeepMind · March 2016 match
Backs Stop 1 · Narrow AI · Mind the Gap, the fine print
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L03Opened
Introducing ChatGPT
OpenAI · 2022-11-30
Backs Stop 2 · Tools · Mind the Gap, the fine print
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R06 Controlled simulationsOpened
Agentic misalignment: How LLMs could be insider threats
Anthropic research team · 2025-06-20
Backs Stop 3 · Agents
What it does not show Fictional corporate simulations, often restricting alternatives; rates are not ordinary deployment prevalence.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Highlights, Methods, and scenario limitations
R02 Proposed frameworkOpened
Levels of AGI for Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI
Meredith Ringel Morris et al. · 2023 preprint; ICML 2024
Backs Stop 3 · Agents
What it does not show A proposed taxonomy, not universal agreement or a current model ranking.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened full HTML; task breadth, performance and autonomy framework checked.
Where to look in the source
Sections 2 through 4; capability levels and autonomy discussion
R13 Individual modeling noteOpened
A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032
Thomas Kwa / METR · 2026-02-10
Backs Stop 4 · The machine that improves the machine · Stop 6 · Takeoff
What it does not show Internal timing discrepancy: lead says late 2032; Observations says mid-2032. V2 displays 2032 without within-year precision. Individual toy forecasting model, not METR consensus or a takeover date.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Opening summary and Observations paragraph: compare late-2032 and mid-2032 wording; model assumptions
R11 Forecast updateOpened
Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue
Eli Lifland, Daniel Kokotajlo, Brendan Halstead · 2026-08-16
Backs Stop 5 · AGI · Stop 6 · Takeoff · Stop 7 · ASI
What it does not show Forecasts condition on development as fast as technically feasible; they are not unconditional takeover probabilities.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened August update; conditional development assumption checked.
Where to look in the source
Updated forecasts; Clarification regarding what we are forecasting
R12 Forecast chartOpened
AI Futures forecast comparison chart, August 2026 column
AI Futures Project · 2026-08-16
Backs Stop 5 · AGI · Stop 7 · ASI
What it does not show Visually verified chart. Rounded years only; mode differs from median; definitions and conditions inherited from R11.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Primary chart image visually inspected, including all April/August columns and median versus modal rows.
Where to look in the source
August 2026 column; AGI median, ASI median, modal year
R14 Researcher surveyOpened
Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI
Katja Grace et al. · Survey Oct 2023; preprint 2024-01-05; v3 2025-10-08
Backs Stop 5 · AGI
What it does not show 2,778 respondents across the survey; not every respondent answered every question. Aggregate forecasts are not empirical event probabilities.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened full paper; historical task and occupation targets retained.
Where to look in the source
Questions defining HLMI and FAOL; aggregate timelines; survey methods and limitations
L29Opened
HAL 9000
Wikipedia article (HAL becomes operational in 1992 in the film and 1997 in the novel) · Read 2026-09-30
Backs Stop 5 · AGI
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L06Opened
Terminator 2: Judgment Day
James Cameron (director) · 1991 film
Backs Stop 5 · AGI · Platform 6 · Skynet
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L04Opened
The Last Question
Isaac Asimov · 1956
Backs Stop 8 · The top band
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R10 Forecast scenarioOpened
AI 2027
Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean · 2025-04-03
Backs Platform 1 · AI 2027
What it does not show Not a verified history. Preserve original publication date and distinguish scenario dates from later forecasts.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened original scenario and both endings, including named agent progression.
Where to look in the source
Opening methodology; 2027 narrative; branch point
R35 Published scenarioOpened
AI 2027: race ending
AI 2027 authors · 2025-04-03
Backs Platform 1 · AI 2027
What it does not show These are authored future events, not observations. Omit operational violence details and national winner judgments.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
2029: The Deal; 2030: Takeover and following aftermath
R36 Published scenarioOpened
AI 2027: slowdown ending
AI 2027 authors · 2025-04-03
Backs Platform 1 · AI 2027
What it does not show Do not portray it as a proven transparent-chain-of-thought method or an uncomplicated democratic utopia.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Safer series; 2028 and 2030 ending discussion
R16 Book / risk argumentOpened
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies
Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares · 2025-09-16
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
What it does not show Publisher metadata and description checked; full book not read in this pass. No page-specific claims or detailed retellings.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Publisher description and metadata
R37 Author explanationOpened
Why did you pick this setup?
If Anyone Builds It authors / official companion · Date not established
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
What it does not show It explains the authors' scenario choices. It is not independent evidence for their prediction.
Status Link opened in headless Chromium (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Alternative beginnings and Part II framing
R38 Author explanationOpened
Why does Sable end up thinking the way it does?
If Anyone Builds It authors / official companion · Date not established
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
What it does not show Not an observed system; full book was not read. Avoid attributing a paperclip objective to Sable.
Status Link opened in headless Chromium (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Training goals and unintended preferences
R39 Author explanationOpened
Why is Galvanic depicted as being fairly careful?
If Anyone Builds It authors / official companion · Date not established
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
What it does not show This does not establish that all possible precautions fail.
Status Link opened in headless Chromium (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Precautions in the fictional lab
L22Opened
Why is Galvanic depicted as being insufficiently careful?
If Anyone Builds It authors / official companion · Date not stated on the page
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R40 Speculative ending discussionOpened
Why did you write the ending in the way that you did?
If Anyone Builds It authors / official companion · Date not established
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
What it does not show These are speculative extensions. No operational harm details are reproduced; scale is not evidence of feasibility.
Status Link opened in headless Chromium (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Discussion of Chapter 9 physical and stellar scope
R49 Author explanationOpened
Why did you have Sable's expansion phase go that way?
If Anyone Builds It authors / official companion · Date not established
Backs Platform 2 · Sable
What it does not show Does not verify detailed intermediate events in the unread book.
Status Link opened in headless Chromium (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Discussion of expansion pacing
R08 Conceptual argumentOpened
Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development
Jan Kulveit et al. · 2025-01-28; v2 2025-01-29
Backs Platform 3 · The quiet handover
What it does not show A proposed causal account, not an established trajectory or measured likelihood.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened full HTML; causal argument distinguished from a measured trajectory.
Where to look in the source
Sections on economic, cultural and institutional dependence; discussion of countervailing possibilities
L12Opened
The Machine Stops
E. M. Forster · 1909 short story
Backs Platform 3 · The quiet handover
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L09Opened
AI winter
Wikipedia overview of the funding collapses after the 1973 Lighthill report and the 1987 collapse of the LISP machine market · 1970s and late 1980s
Backs Platform 4 · The bubble pops
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R01 Research synthesisOpened
International AI Safety Report 2026
International AI Safety Report writing team · 2026-02-03
Backs Platform 5 · The wrong hands
What it does not show The report describes major disagreements and gaps. Its February assessment must not be silently presented as a fresh September capability measurement.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Section 2.2.2, Loss of control
L05Opened
The Terminator
James Cameron (director) · 1984 film
Backs Platform 6 · Skynet
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R44 Official film synopsisOpened
Colossus: The Forbin Project
Universal Pictures at Home · Film released 1970
Backs Platform 7 · Colossus
What it does not show Fiction comparison, not a documented defense-system event.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Film synopsis
R47 Film record and synopsisOpened
2001: A Space Odyssey
British Film Institute · Film released 1968
Backs Platform 8 · HAL 9000
What it does not show Local event, not an Earth-takeover chronology; the user's unidentified Hell reference remains unresolved.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Film synopsis
L28Opened
2001: A Space Odyssey (film)
Stanley Kubrick (director); Wikipedia article, which carries the plot · 1968 film
Backs Platform 8 · HAL 9000
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R45 Film criticism and synopsisOpened
The Matrix and rubber reality
British Film Institute / Sight and Sound · Reviewed page; original review discussed
Backs Platform 9 · The Matrix
What it does not show Film energy premise is not scientific evidence. No scene clips, character likenesses or production art are included.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Simulated 1999 and machine-controlled physical world
R46 Game synopsisOpened
I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream
GOG / game publisher listing · Game adaptation released 1995
Backs Platform 10 · AM
What it does not show Use the documented adaptation premise. Do not claim this is a full reading of the 1967 story or combine alternate endings.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Story description
L17Opened
I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream
Harlan Ellison · 1967 short story
Backs Platform 10 · AM
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L13Opened
Runaround
Isaac Asimov · 1942 short story
Backs Platform 11 · The Three Laws
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L14Opened
I, Robot
Isaac Asimov · 1950 collection
Backs Platform 11 · The Three Laws
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L15Opened
Westworld
HBO series created by Jonathan Nolan and Lisa Joy · 2016
Backs Platform 12 · What we owe them
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L16Opened
Detroit: Become Human
Quantic Dream · 2018 game
Backs Platform 12 · What we owe them
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L07Opened
Engines of Creation
K. Eric Drexler · 1986
Backs Platform 13 · Grey goo
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R17 Conditional physical analysisOpened
Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations
Robert A. Freitas Jr. · 2000
Backs Platform 13 · Grey goo
What it does not show Analyzes hypothetical nanoreplicators, not demonstrated present capability or a schedule for grey goo.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened conditional physical analysis; dispersal/resource/thermal boundaries checked.
Where to look in the source
Resource, energy, dispersal, and thermal constraints
R48 Video reference / secondary indexNot opened
How GREY GOO Could Destroy Everything
Kyle Hill; metadata recovered through Glasp · 2020-08-28
Backs Platform 13 · Grey goo
What it does not show Full narration was not reviewed. Physical claims rely on R17, not a generated summary.
Backs no claim on its own. The grey goo physics in the fine print rests on R17, and the record says the full narration of this video was never reviewed.
Status Not opened. On the link answered HTTP 403 in headless Chromium after a plain script had already been turned away. Earlier review (): it recorded only the limit above.
Where to look in the source
Indexed title and transcript preview
L10Opened
Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence
Nick Bostrom · 2003
Backs Platform 14 · The paperclip maximizer
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R28 Conceptual argumentOpened
The Superintelligent Will: Motivation and Instrumental Rationality in Advanced Artificial Agents
Nick Bostrom · 2012
Backs Platform 14 · The paperclip maximizer
What it does not show A conditional philosophical argument, not an empirical claim that every intelligence seeks power. This is a separate 2012 paper, not a full review of Superintelligence.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Sections 1 through 2; orthogonality and instrumental convergence, including qualifications
L11Opened
Universal Paperclips
Decision Problem (the game) · 2017 browser game
Backs Platform 14 · The paperclip maximizer
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L24Opened
Universal Paperclips
Frank Lantz (Wikipedia article on the game) · 2017 browser game
Backs Platform 14 · The paperclip maximizer
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L25Opened
Iron
Wikipedia article (an adult human body contains about 4 grams of iron) · Read 2026-09-30
Backs Platform 14 · The paperclip maximizer
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L21Opened
The Artificial Intelligence That Deleted A Century
Tom Scott (YouTube) · 2018-12-06
Backs Platform 15 · Earworm · Mind the Gap, the fine print
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R41 Fiction videoOpened
The Artificial Intelligence That Deleted A Century
Tom Scott · 2018-12-06
Backs Platform 15 · Earworm
What it does not show Direct page returned the title, not a complete transcript. Detailed motive and technical sequence are not verified.
The same video as L21. Both records are kept because the Earworm fine print cites both.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200, moved to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JlxuQ7tPgQ&feature=youtu.be). Earlier review (): it recorded only the limit above.
Where to look in the source
Creator video title; linked original
R42 Secondary metadataNot opened
The Artificial Intelligence That Deleted A Century: episode record
IMDb · Date not established
Backs Platform 15 · Earworm
What it does not show Secondary metadata only. The local Bellwether sequence is original, not a detailed source retelling.
Status Not opened. On the link answered with a bot check instead of the page in headless Chromium after a plain script had already been turned away. Earlier review (): Relevant public page reviewed at the stated locator; use limited to this synopsis.
Where to look in the source
Episode synopsis and writer credit
R34 Fiction / author descriptionOpened
The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect
Roger Williams · Author-hosted edition; calendar date not used
Backs Platform 16 · The benevolent jailer
What it does not show Author description only, not a full reading. External work has strong sexual and violent content; no clips or graphic scenes imported.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Author jacket description and content notice
L18Opened
The Singularity Is Near
Ray Kurzweil · 2005
Backs Platform 17 · The merge
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L19Opened
Pantheon
AMC+ animated series created by Craig Silverstein · 2022
Backs Platform 17 · The merge
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
R09 Contrasting analytical frameworkOpened
AI as Normal Technology
Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor · 2025-04-15
Backs Platform 18 · Normal technology
What it does not show An argued alternative, not a proof that extreme risks are impossible.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Reopened author essay; capability, applications and adoption framing checked.
Where to look in the source
Capability, application, and adoption discussion
R25 Controlled evaluation frameworkOpened
AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion
Ryan Greenblatt, Buck Shlegeris, Kshitij Sachan, Fabien Roger · ICML 2024; preprint 2023
Backs Platform 19 · Still here
What it does not show Specific programming testbed and tested strategies, not a universal alignment solution.
Status Link opened by script (HTTP 200). Earlier review (): Inherited v4 record, not independently reread in full for v5.
Where to look in the source
Sections 2 through 3: programming/backdoor testbed, trusted/untrusted roles; discussion and limitations
L08Opened
The Culture series
Iain M. Banks · 1987 to 2012
Backs Platform 20 · The Culture
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L20Opened
Her
Spike Jonze (writer and director) · 2013 film
Backs Platform 21 · They leave
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L23Opened
Her (2013): transcript of the film
Spike Jonze (writer and director); transcript hosted on subslikescript.com · 2013 film
Backs Platform 21 · They leave
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L26Opened
Earth Fact Sheet
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center · Undated fact sheet (mean radius 6,371 km)
Backs The ride home
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
L27Opened
Light-year
Wikipedia article (one light-year is 9.4607 × 10^15 metres) · Read 2026-09-30
Backs The ride home
Status Opened . The claim it backs was read against the page.
Forecast pins
The dates pinned on the altitude meter and shown at the AGI stop. They answer different questions, several share one source family, and they are not votes for a single date. None is a probability of any outcome.
2028 · Daniel Kokotajlo
Rounded median year for TED-AI, published 2026-08-16. Top-Expert-Dominating AI: at least as good as top human experts at virtually all cognitive tasks.
Conditions Conditional on development proceeding as fast as technically feasible; use source-specific definitions. Chart column August 2026.
2032 · Eli Lifland
Rounded median year for TED-AI, published 2026-08-16. Top-Expert-Dominating AI: at least as good as top human experts at virtually all cognitive tasks.
Conditions Conditional on development proceeding as fast as technically feasible; use source-specific definitions. Same framework, different judgment.
2047 · 2023 AI-author survey aggregate
Aggregate 50% date for HLMI, published 2024-01-05. Feasibility of unaided systems doing every task better and at lower cost than human workers, excluding tasks with intrinsic human advantages.
Conditions Assume human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption; feasibility, not adoption. HLMI question n=1,714; the authors discuss framing effects when comparing with FAOL.
From R14
2029 · Daniel Kokotajlo
Rounded median year for ASI, published 2026-08-16. Source operationalization: performance beyond the best humans by twice the best-human to median-professional gap, across virtually all cognitive tasks.
Conditions Conditional on development proceeding as fast as technically feasible; use source-specific definitions. Not a takeover date.
2033 · Eli Lifland
Rounded median year for ASI, published 2026-08-16. Source operationalization: performance beyond the best humans by twice the best-human to median-professional gap, across virtually all cognitive tasks.
Conditions Conditional on development proceeding as fast as technically feasible; use source-specific definitions. Not a takeover date.
Corrections
A source that says something other than the page claims, or a link that no longer opens, is a bug. Report it with the source id, what you found and the date.